Keep running at a low level, how to ensure supply and price stability？ -Price articles of mid-year economic research bank

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 14th Question: how to ensure supply and price stability if it continues to operate at a low level? -Price articles of mid-year economic research bank

Xinhua news agency reporter

Prices are related to economic operation and affect people’s lives. In the first half of this year, China’s prices maintained a stable operation, but since the second quarter, due to multiple factors, the increase has declined.

In the first half of the year, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, lower than the 1.7% increase in the same period last year. Among them, in June, CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year from last month to flat, down by 0.2% month-on-month.

How to treat the current price trend? In the past few days, Xinhua News Agency reporters have conducted in-depth investigations in Hunan, Jiangsu and other places, and have truly felt that all parties have a solid support for effectively coping with price fluctuations, continuously strengthening the supply and stability of prices, and maintaining the stable operation of prices throughout the year.

Guarantee the supply of important commodities for people’s livelihood

Near the evening, many citizens are choosing pork, eggplant and other products at Chanan Farmers’ Market in jianye district, Nanjing, Jiangsu.

"Now, the price of vegetables and meat is generally low. The price of ordinary pork belly has dropped to more than 10 yuan a catty, and the’ vegetable basket’ is more comfortable." Aunt Xu, a Nanjing citizen who came to the market to buy food, said.

Since the beginning of this year, prices have continued to fall due to the time difference between supply and demand recovery and the high base.

Lower prices will help to reduce the cost of living of the people, but for the relevant production enterprises, it means that the sales price will fall, resulting in shrinking profits.

In the fruit trading area of Red Star Global Agricultural Products Wholesale Center in Changsha, Hunan Province, watching boxes of durian imported from Vietnam being unloaded in an orderly manner on the cold chain transport vehicle, Zhang Xinghua, the head of the "Fruit Taoren" business department of Hunan Fruit Friends Company, recorded the weight of durian in detail in a notebook, and roughly calculated the cost and estimated income.

"At the beginning of this year, we added a Vietnamese durian procurement contract. Durian shipments increased by 20% compared with last year, but the market sales volume was delayed, the average sales price fell, and the income continued to decline." Zhang Xinghua said.

Restricted by unstable income expectations and other factors, the demand of high-end fruit market has declined as a whole, which is a challenge for fruit wholesalers.

How to meet the challenge? Zhang Xinghua mainly plays "two cards".

"On the cost side, improve procurement efficiency, further optimize import transportation routes and reduce expenses; On the sales side, strengthen the national market pre-judgment and adjust shipments in a timely manner. For example, the price of durian in some cities in the north has rebounded, which will increase the supply to these cities. " Zhang Xinghua said that the company’s durian supply is still sufficient.

From the perspective of food prices, the fluctuation of pork prices is more obvious. In June, the price of pork decreased by 7.2% year-on-year, which was 4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.

According to industry insiders, the pig breeding industry has been losing money for many months, and some pig enterprises have even fallen into the dilemma of "selling more and losing more". Under the pressure of low pig prices, most pig enterprises practice "internal strength" hard to improve management efficiency and fully hedge the risk of lower pig prices.

The reporter walked into the pig breeding factory of Mu Yuan Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. in Lishui, Nanjing. Locating bars, intelligent environmental control, precision feeding and other equipment were widely used in pig houses. The pregnant houses and delivery rooms were clean and tidy, and almost no pungent odor was smelled.

"By using digital technologies such as automatic inspection and intelligent recipe feeding, the daily gain of pig fattening exceeded 1000 grams, the survival rate increased by about 5%, and the breeding efficiency was greatly improved, which greatly alleviated the impact of this round of pig price decline." Qin Shaojun, regional manager of Sunan of Mu Yuan Group, said that the supply of live pigs in the group is generally stable at present.

Guaranteed supply and stable price, all localities are working hard. Jiangsu identified 881 emergency supply enterprises for daily necessities, established a special supply network and increased supply outlets; Jingde County, Anhui Province guides key commercial enterprises to broaden sources of supply and strengthen supply reserves; Xi ‘an, Shaanxi Province opened the "Bus Vegetable Basket Huimin Station" to deliver fresh agricultural and sideline products to residents’ doorsteps through "direct mining, direct supply and direct sales" …

"In the face of multiple pressures, all localities and departments made efforts from both sides of supply and demand, strengthened the analysis and judgment of price trends, and timely adopted targeted price stabilization measures. In the first half of the year, the supply of important people’s livelihood commodities was sufficient, and the CPI generally maintained a moderate increase." Wang Likun, an associate researcher at the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said.

Actively respond to the downward impact of PPI

Coordinate the delivery schedule with the steel sales company, communicate with the old customers about the demand for steel, and adjust the delivery schedule by staring at the online steel price trend in real time … Yanyu, who has been engaged in steel agency for 15 years, said frankly that "steel prices have been bottoming out and I feel very nervous".

"This year, we signed a purchase agreement with Handan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. for more than 60,000 tons of construction steel and cold-rolled steel plates, and shipped more than 5,000 tons of steel every month as planned, but since the beginning of the year, the price of steel has continued to be sluggish, with a year-on-year decline of about 30%." Smoke jade said.

"Low price" is the feeling of many commodity enterprises this year.

Mainly affected by international import factors, commodity prices continued to fall. In the first half of the year, the national producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the decline expanded month after month.

In the investigation, the reporter found that relevant industries are actively responding to the downward impact of PPI through innovative measures such as adjusting product structure and improving industrial chain.

At 4: 00 pm on June 28th, the oil tanker "Haixinyou 616" was loaded with 9981 tons of aviation kerosene and sailed from Pier 11 of Jinling Petrochemical Company of China Petrochemical Company to Shanghai Pudong Airport, which was the sixth oil tanker that the company sailed that day.

Facing the downward fluctuation of international crude oil price and the shrinking profit space of refined oil, chemical products and by-products, Jinling Petrochemical Company of China Petrochemical Company aimed at market demand, increased the production and supply of aviation kerosene, high-end graphite materials, aromatic hydrocarbons and other products, and tapped new profit growth points.

"In the first half of the year, the output of aviation kerosene increased by 35% year-on-year, which not only helped to ensure the recovery of the civil aviation industry, but also increased revenue and efficiency for enterprises." Liu Wenbao, manager of the production planning department of Jinling Petrochemical Company of China Petrochemical Company, said that we expect that there is still room for growth in sales and profits throughout the year.

PPI is related to the price of raw materials, and its decline is expanding, which increases the operating pressure of upstream enterprises, but it is conducive to reducing the production costs of downstream industries such as home appliances and paper making, which is good for downstream enterprises.

"Affected by positive factors such as falling raw material prices and stable sales, the consumption of household appliances such as air conditioners and refrigerators maintained a relatively high growth in the first half of the year, and the unit price growth rate of user consumption was above double digits. On average, there were more than 50 stores in various formats such as Suning Yijia Plaza Store and Suning Yijia Flagship Store." The person in charge of Suning.cn said.

Li Gang, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that PPI is mainly affected by changes in the international market, and it is not completely synchronized with CPI fluctuations. Keeping its fluctuation range at a relatively reasonable level is conducive to the coordinated development of upstream and downstream industries. Recently, the policy of stabilizing industry has been continuously introduced, some of which are taking effect, helping enterprises to stabilize orders and expand the market, and the cardinal utility has weakened. The year-on-year decline of PPI is expected to narrow in the second half of the year.

Prices may remain moderately rising.

As an important indicator of macroeconomic operation, the price increase has continued to fall, even causing some concerns about the economy falling into deflation. Will prices continue to fall in the second half of the year? How to treat the price situation? The reporter came to the front line to observe the price dynamics.

Xinfadi market is called the "vegetable basket" of Beijing citizens. Tong Wei, the person in charge of Xinfadi Market, said that recently, the average daily market volume of vegetables has stabilized at around 19,000 tons, and the prices of some vegetables have increased due to the rebound in demand. For example, cucumbers produced in Langfang, Hebei Province have high tenderness and good taste, and the demand continues to increase, driving up prices.

According to the data of key e-commerce platforms, the demand for fruit consumption in the season is strong, and the price of fresh fruit is expected to pick up. "Recently, we have increased the purchase of seasonal fruits such as peaches and bayberries, and launched hundreds of products to cool off the summer and ensure market supply." The person in charge of the US group buying food said.

At present, the price of "vegetable basket" has increased year-on-year. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from July 3 to July 9, the average weekly wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored mainly increased by 13% year-on-year.

The price trend is the same as that of the "vegetable basket". Under the influence of policies such as promoting consumption, the prices of home appliances and tourism are on the rise.

At present, Suning.cn has further increased the supply of high-end household appliances. "Recently, the order volume of high-end home appliances has continued to increase, and it is expected that the unit price of user consumption will further increase." The person in charge of Suning.cn said.

According to Wang Likun’s analysis, with the increasing endogenous kinetic energy of China’s economy, the bilateral recovery of supply and demand tends to be balanced, and the market circulation order continues to improve, market confidence increases and expectations continue to improve. It is expected that the overall price increase will gradually return to a reasonable level in the second half of the year.

The National Energy Administration urged power generation enterprises to implement a stable supply of coal and gas, sign a medium-and long-term contract agreement on coal and gas with good quality and quantity, and actively respond to the peak of electricity consumption this summer; The National Development and Reform Commission will, together with relevant parties, start the second batch of central pork storage and purchasing during the year, and guide all localities to synchronize storage and purchasing, so as to push the price of live pigs back to a reasonable range as soon as possible; Hubei and Beijing issue a new round of coupons …

Recently, all parties have made active efforts from both sides of supply and demand to ensure the supply of important commodities for people’s livelihood and promote the continuous recovery of consumer demand. According to industry analysts, at present, China’s total economic supply and demand are basically balanced, and the monetary conditions are reasonable and moderate. At the end of June, the broad money (M2) balance increased by 11.3% year-on-year; Residents’ expectations are stable and there is no basis for long-term deflation or inflation.

"From the perspective of the whole year, with the steady expansion of China’s market demand and the gradual increase of production and supply, the relationship between supply and demand is expected to be generally stable, and consumer prices will generally maintain a moderate increase." Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said. (Reporter Wei Yukun, Gao Kang, Yan Fujing, Zhao Jiulong, Zhou Nan)