US media： How will the conflict between Russia and Ukraine evolve in 2024？
On December 28th, 2023, the bimonthly website of American National Interest published the title "Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024: What will happen now? The author is Alexander Mortier, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark. The full text is as follows:
What if Washington has given little or no aid to Ukraine recently? What does this mean for Kiev in 2024? What does this mean for Russia?
The answers to these questions depend on people’s understanding of "recent". Most western critics seem to assume the worst-case scenario, that is, American aid will be completely exhausted. But this is unlikely to happen. The White House needs to continue to fund Ukraine, while Congress needs to curb the flow of immigrants. Although some people growl and beat their chests, compromise is almost inevitable, because neither side wants to "lose Ukraine" or "stop" the migration tide from failing in an election year. The only question is whether the funds will recover in a few weeks or months.
In view of this situation, Kiev’s strategy is clear: continue to do what it has been doing very effectively. This means weakening the Russian navy, air force, transportation network and strategic infrastructure, and causing serious casualties to Russian soldiers.
The reality is that Ukraine’s counterattack has been difficult almost from the beginning. This is not to say that Ukrainians have been attacking crazily in the past few months, and it was not until a few weeks ago (when General Valery Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, publicly talked about the "deadlock") that they suddenly realized that they had hardly made any progress. On the contrary, Ukrainians have long adopted the defensive stance suggested by western policymakers and analysts. The Russian side has been launching attacks in most areas along the front line, and at the same time adopting sea tactics, but these tactics have not achieved much territory, but have caused huge casualties.
The real question is not whether Kiev can continue to do what it has been doing-because the answer is yes-but whether Moscow can do it. It is reported that Putin is not particularly concerned about how many young Russians were forced to die in this conflict. Moreover, there is increasing evidence that Russians are increasingly worried about the impact of conflict on their lives and the lives of their fathers, sons and husbands at the front.
Women have been protesting that their relatives are not on vacation. The soldiers have been running away. The number of casualties is unusually high, and it is likely to increase as Ukraine adopts a more defensive strategy.
Of course, Putin will win the presidential election on March 17 by an overwhelming majority, but this victory may prove to be not worth the candle. Re-election will make Putin the only person in charge of this conflict and its impact on ordinary Russian people.
Will Putin have the courage to seek a breakthrough? The temptation will be great. After all, the west is confused about what to do next, and Washington is hesitant about aid. At the same time, Putin must realize that some kind of victory may have a miraculous effect on improving his position at home.
If he is willing to try, Ukraine and the West should be happy to rub their hands. In fact, the Russian armed forces simply have no ability to carry out large-scale attacks, let alone succeed. Ukraine may lose some territory, but the loss of personnel, tanks and other equipment in Russia will be amazing. Even Putin and his propagandists can’t convince Russians that such a result is equivalent to a great victory.
Failure in conflict often brings about major changes-in Russia and elsewhere. The Crimean War abolished serfdom, the Russo-Japanese War brought about democratic reform, the First World War ended the czar’s regime, and the defeat in Afghanistan promoted the reform of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s. If Putin concludes that the time is ripe for a full-scale attack in 2024, then Russia is likely to have the next major change. (Compile/Lu Di)