The 3000-point A-share defense war has been restarted. What’s the difference this time？

　　On April 25th, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down by 5.13%, and fell below the 3,000-point mark again after 22 months to 2,928.51 points, bringing a general decline covering more than 96% of the stocks.

　　Why did A shares plummet? Many institutions believe that it is the result of the failure to effectively hedge external risks and internal benefits under multi-factor resonance. A shares will be repaired, but it will take some time.

　　Overseas markets are surging — — James Bullard, a well-known hawkish official of the Federal Reserve, refused to rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points (BP) in early May. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability that traders will raise interest rates by 75BP at least once in the next two meetings is over 95%. In the first quarter, US stock earnings reached a climax this week. Five-sevenths of the companies with the largest market capitalization in the United States will release earnings reports, mainly technology giants, which will naturally become the focus. The agency expects that the overall profit growth rate will be the lowest in the past five quarters. US stocks plunged last Friday, with the Dow falling by 1,000 points.

　　At the same time, on the 25th, the offshore RMB broke through the 6.6 mark against the US dollar, with the depreciation rate exceeding 2,400 points since the beginning of the year. As of 16:30, USD/onshore RMB reported 6.5544, down 669 points from the previous closing price, the lowest since April 2 last year; As of 18:49, USD/offshore RMB reported 6.6041. Then, the central bank announced that it would reduce the foreign exchange reserve ratio, and the offshore RMB rebounded by 300 points in the short term to near 6.5738.

　　The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000, and the hot stocks plunged.

　　Affected by weakening market sentiment, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points on the 25th. After the resumption of the market performance during several RMB devaluations since 2015, the overall market was dominated by decline, with relatively dominant value and finance in style, and its growth was greatly affected.

　　Since April, the major indexes have continued to fall by shocks. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 3.87% and 4.19% respectively, while the Growth Enterprise Market fell by 6.66%. At the industry level, textile clothing benefited from the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, rising by 4.93%, while the decline of electricity and public utilities, food, household appliances and transportation was relatively small; Real estate, steel, nonferrous metals, coal, medicine and building materials were among the top losers.

　　On the 25th, the hot stocks fell sharply, including the Internet, basic metals, education, chemical raw materials, leisure products, aerospace and military industries, which fell by more than 8%, while the popular concept sectors including photoresist, sodium ion batteries, industrial metals, semiconductor equipment, aluminum industry and online education fell by more than 9%. Even the COVID-19 antigen testing, large-scale infrastructure, generic drugs and other sectors, which once became the concept sector of A-shares rising against the trend, fell by more than 3.5% on that day. Short positions favored by foreign investors, such as China Merchants Bank, New China Life Insurance, Wuliangye, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited and Longji, all fell more than 5%.

　　At present, it is in the intensive release period of a quarterly report, and some manufacturing growth leaders have slowed down their performance growth or failed to meet expectations, which may lead to a decline in stock prices and suppress the overall performance of A shares. For example, Hengrui Pharma, the leading pharmaceutical stock, plunged at the opening, and fell sharply in intraday trading, closing at 29.7 yuan/share, hitting a three-year low. Another example is Longji shares, which fell by 8.69% to 56.61 yuan/share on the 25th after many days’ decline, and the market value of one day evaporated by 29.176 billion yuan.

　　According to the reporter, on the 25th, the total market value of 4,799 listed companies in the city evaporated to 4.58 trillion yuan. Since the beginning of this year, the average decline of the above 255 listed companies is as high as 19%.

　　A number of institutions told reporters that the sharp drop in A shares was the result of the failure to effectively hedge external risks and internal benefits. "It is precisely because the weak rebound expectation is broken that the market is moving in an extreme direction." Yan Kaiwen, chief strategist of Huaxin Securities, said.

　　Li Meicen, chief strategist of Caitong Securities, also put forward the theory of "dislocation". "At present, the external economy is at a high level, China’s economy is at a low level, and the economic fundamentals are at the biggest dislocation stage. The external is receiving, we are releasing, the exchange rate expectation pressure is high, the stock market stock game, and the liquidity is more pessimistic. " The two-way dislocation inside and outside, coupled with the repeated epidemic, the constant thunder in the first quarter, the recovery of supply chain and the recovery of consumption have not improved, so the Shanghai Composite Index is close to the previous low again, and investors are more pessimistic.

　　How does the exchange rate affect A shares?

　　Since 2010, there have been eight obvious cycles of RMB depreciation, in which A shares rose four times and fell four times. Specifically, after the "811 Exchange Reform" in 2015, the RMB exchange rate experienced four obvious devaluations. The first two times were the narrowing of the spread between China and the United States caused by the tightening of the Federal Reserve, and the macroeconomic kinetic energy was "strong in the United States and weak in the middle". Corresponding to the performance of the stock market, both the broader market and the industry closed down.

　　The probability that RMB depreciation is positively related to the decline of A shares is 50%. There is no direct causal relationship between the stock market and the exchange rate, but the exchange rate is usually a reflection of the basic market. At the same time, with the increase of the participation of overseas investors in A shares, the impact of foreign capital flows on A shares is increasing. Therefore, Yan Kaiwen believes that the rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate since 2018 has a dominant impact on A shares, and at the same time, such impact will be amplified in the weak stage of A shares.

　　"The market expects more steady growth policies and measures to stabilize the economy and market expectations, thus boosting investor sentiment. The current market uncertainty is more prominent. Seeing more and doing less is still a more suitable investment strategy for ordinary investors. The opportunities after the direction is determined are easier to grasp. " Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, said.

　　Li Meicen said that this week is a crucial week, and the uncertainty that investors pay attention to is becoming clear. On the one hand, with the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the recovery of the supply chain, the domestic economy will run upwards, and corporate profits are expected to gradually stabilize and rebound. On the other hand, in the case of less incremental funds, the market showed a situation of stock game in the first half of the year. If the Federal Reserve did not make a more "eagle" statement later, with the comparative advantage of China’s economy highlighted, overseas funds may flow back to emerging markets, especially the China market with significant allocation value in the medium and long term.

　　As for the follow-up trend of the exchange rate, the most critical export data has not changed much, and there is no sign that the capital outflow will continue to accelerate significantly. The weakening of the emotional side is the main reason. "At present, offshore hedge funds have begun to make more dollars against the RMB. Although there are many uncertainties and even some institutions are at a loss, it seems more mainstream to make more dollars in the short term." A foreign bank strategist told CBN.

　　Another foreign trader told reporters: "Let the bullets fly for a while." In fact, from October last year to the beginning of last week, the RMB kept in the range of 6.3, and the fluctuation was unusually low, and there was no trace of offshore short positions. At that time, China’s exports continued to be strong, and domestic US dollar deposits reached 1.1 trillion US dollars, which also made enterprises unwilling to buy US dollars. Moreover, before that, the RMB yield was still higher than the US dollar, and shorting the RMB required a spread. However, at present, the situation has reversed, and even if the prospects are highly uncertain, offshore institutions have begun to test the water and short.

　　The spread between China and the United States has been upside down for nearly two weeks. As of the close of 25th, the yield of China ten-year treasury bonds 220003(22 interest-bearing treasury bonds 03) was 2.8325%. The yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds was reported at 2.828% on Monday, down from the high of 3% hit last week, but it is still expected to rise in the future.

　　However, around 19: 20 on the 25th, the central bank announced that it would reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point, that is, from the current 9% to 8%. This means that the market dollar liquidity will increase, releasing the signal of the central bank to stabilize the RMB.

　　"This is more symbolic, with a range of only 1%, but it also shows that the central bank is happy to see the two-way fluctuation of the RMB, but it does not want to see the exchange rate depreciate sharply too quickly." The above traders told reporters that the maximum release of US dollar liquidity was US$ 10 billion, which was still relatively small compared with the daily average US$/RMB trading volume in the onshore market of US$ 39 billion.

　　In fact, before this RRR cut, the central bank "increased the RRR" twice last year, each time by 2%, and the foreign exchange reserve ratio rose from 5% before June last year to 9%. At that time, the central bank intended to slow down the appreciation of the RMB. In 2021, due to strong exports and accelerated inflow of foreign capital, the RMB once rose to around 6.3.

　　Be wary of the Fed raising interest rates by 75BP in May.

　　In the next two weeks, the financial reports of overseas central banks and US stocks will be the focus of the market, which will also have an impact on the RMB and China stock market.

　　US stocks closed down sharply last Friday. The Dow hit its biggest one-day drop so far this year, closing down 981.36 points, or 2.82%.

　　The increasingly hawkish stance of the Fed is the main reason. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said last week that "it is possible to raise interest rates by 50BP at the meeting in May", while Brad refused to rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 75BP next month.

　　"It is becoming increasingly clear that the Fed is accepting the view that it needs to raise interest rates extremely aggressively to control inflation. The Fed has never raised interest rates by 75BP at one time since 1994, but the hint of raising interest rates by 75BP seems not so bizarre to almost all of us now. In fact, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now count the chances of raising interest rates by 75 basis points at least once in the next two meetings of the Fed to exceed 95%. " Matt Weller, head of global research at Jiasheng Group, told reporters.

　　"In view of this, the volatility of all markets is likely to remain high for the rest of this year." He said. The core PCE report will be released this Friday, which is the most favored inflation indicator of the Fed, and it has been rising for five months. Judging from the early estimates, the core PCE may remain unchanged at 5.4% this time. If the reading is unexpectedly higher than expected, it may open the door to raising interest rates by 75BP as soon as next Thursday, which may be highly profitable for the US dollar and bad for the US stock market. As of 17: 50 Beijing time on the 25th, the US dollar index stood at 101.573.