Abe’s ＂over-the-top diplomacy＂ peak gambling game was almost delayed by the ＂special gold club＂
CCTV News:This week, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited the United States, and the Japanese and American leaders met again, which attracted much attention.
Counting, this is Abe’s second visit to the United States within half a year after September last year, and it is also his sixth direct meeting with Trump. The timing of Abe’s visit to the United States is even more intriguing. On the one hand, there has been a sharp turn in US-DPRK relations; On the other hand, the recent trade policy of the United States tends to be unilateral and conservative. This has made Japan feel uneasy.
No wonder it is reported that Abe said privately before leaving: "This time it is a gamble, and one game will win or lose!"
Trump met Kim Jong-un? !
On the morning of April 18th, a number of media exposed this news in the mode of "breaking news", which temporarily grabbed the limelight of Trump’s meeting with Shinzo Abe.
But soon, it was proved to be a fake news.
The cause of the misunderstanding was what Trump and Abe said when they met with reporters the day before.
US President Trump said,We have started a direct dialogue with North Korea, and we have had a high-level dialogue, a very high-level dialogue.
Who is this "very high level" after the White House press secretary came forward to deny that "the special gold meeting has been held"? It has become a new problem.
Fortunately, this time Trump quickly uncovered the mystery, and US President Trump said,By the way, Pompeo just left North Korea and held an important meeting with Kim Jong-un, and they had a very good talk.
It turned out that it was Pompeo, the Chinese intelligence director who was about to take over as Secretary of State, who secretly visited North Korea and met with Kim Jong-un during Easter. Since then, in the Senate hearing, in the face of aggressive members, Pompeo revealed subtle information.
Pompeo’s visit to the DPRK is of course an important step towards the DPRK-US summit for Trump. But for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, it has experienced another embarrassing "over-the-top diplomacy".
On March 6, the special envoy of the South Korean President visited the DPRK and reached six agreements, including the meeting between the DPRK and the ROK at the end of April, which caused a sensation.
On March 8, the United States announced that the US-DPRK summit will meet in May.
In late March, Kim Jong-un visited China, and the leaders of China and the DPRK took the lead in meeting … …
Since 2018, there have been many turning points in the DPRK nuclear issue that have surprised the outside world. The DPRK, the ROK, the United States and China have their own wonderful things, but Japan has been left alone.
Therefore, it is widely believed that one of the purposes of Abe’s visit to the United States at this time is to get rid of the embarrassment of "outsiders" and make a "trip to the table" before the US-DPRK meeting.
I want to confirm that the United States and Japan will continue to exert maximum pressure to make North Korea abandon its nuclear program in a completely verifiable and irreversible way,’ Mr. Abe said. Most importantly, I hope to discuss with President Trump and try my best to solve the Japanese hostage problem before the first summit between the United States and North Korea.
According to Japan’s Kyodo News Agency, around the US-DPRK talks, the US’s top priority is to prevent North Korea from developing "intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and covering the United States", while Japan believes that short-and medium-range ballistic missiles also pose threats, and hopes that the US-DPRK summit meeting will not put this discussion aside.
After two days of talks, Trump politely responded to Abe’s idea, but it only stopped there.
On April 21st, it was reported in Korean Central News Agency that the Third Plenary Session of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea decided that North Korea would suspend its nuclear test and intercontinental ballistic missile launch test from April 21st, 2018.
A Japanese parliamentarian once publicly said in Congress: "In the rapidly changing situation on the Korean Peninsula, it seems that only Japan has been left behind!" This really pokes Abe’s "pain point."
On the North Korean nuclear issue, Japan has been keeping pace with the United States and putting pressure on North Korea. This time, in the words of the BBC, when the DPRK-US summit was finalized, Abe felt "forgotten in a cold corner."
The US Foreign Policy website article believes that Abe has "fallen out of favor" in Trump’s mind, which can be seen from the pressure of the United States on Japan on trade issues.
On April 18, just during Abe’s visit to the United States, Trump sent a tweet, mentioning another pain point between the United States and Japan: the TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.
"Although Japan and South Korea want us to return to the TPP, I don’t like the terms involved in the United States."
This is another sharp turn compared with the statement made six days ago.
On April 12th, Trump said that he had asked White House Chief Economic Adviser Kudla and Trade Representative Wright Heze to study whether the United States should rejoin the TPP, which excited the Japanese side.
The TPP promoted in the Obama era was once a model of cooperation between the United States and Japan, but in January 2017, Trump announced his withdrawal just one week after he took office, and Japan had to lead the remaining 11 countries to re-sign the reduced TPP in March this year & mdash; — “CPTPP”。
During his visit to the United States, Abe originally wanted to propose the establishment of a new US-Japan trade dialogue framework to attract the United States to return to the TPP.
However, I didn’t expect Trump’s attitude to change again, and he refused on the spot, which made Abe quite embarrassed.
Later, when Trump invited Abe to play golf, Abe’s expression was not natural.
Trump mentioned that when he visited Japan last November, they went to the Xiaguan Country Club to play golf.
Kyodo said that the purpose of "golf diplomacy" is to deepen the trust between the two leaders through common interests.
At that time, Tokyo TV caught an unexpected scene on the court.
Abe falls down.
Some netizens commented: this is the embodiment of the imbalance between the two countries.
But in Trump’s view, the biggest imbalance between the United States and Japan is trade.
Trump said in November 2017 that we want fair and open trade. But now the trade between the United States and Japan is neither fair nor open, but I know it will improve soon.
Trump, who demanded "fairness", finally shot.
On March 8, Trump announced a comprehensive tariff increase on imported steel and aluminum products, and at the same time granted many allies temporary exemptions, but Japan did not get it.
In Trump’s eyes, Japan’s automobile and agricultural products markets that are not fully opened are "unfair".
On March 15th, he told such a "car barrier story".The Japanese use a "bowling test". Do you know what this is? They will drop a bowling ball from 6 meters high and hit the roof. If there is a dent in the roof, it is judged that the quality is unqualified.
This makes American journalists skeptical.
In fact, in 2017, the US trade deficit with Japan decreased by 20% compared with 10 years ago. The practice of US trade protectionism naturally made Japan feel dissatisfied. At this time, Abe’s visit to the United States will bear more expectations.
"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" therefore commented that Abe’s diplomacy with Japan-US relations as the axis began to emerge, and his "friendship" with Trump obviously had certain limitations. "Abe’s diplomacy is somewhat embarrassing."
After Abe’ s trip to the United States ended on the 19 th, Kyodo’ s inventory of the visit results was:In two days, Abe and Trump talked for three times for about four hours, had dinner twice and played golf again. However, apart from the "etiquette show", "I can’t see clearly" what substantive results Abe has obtained from Trump.
Whether it is TPP or trade deficit, it is a difficult "heart knot" between Abe and Trump.
In Japan, because of the scandal, Abe’s support rate has recently fallen to the lowest level since he was re-elected as prime minister in 2012.
Diplomacy and internal affairs are between two "gambling games", and every step of Abe needs careful consideration.
On the evening of April 18, when Abe was visiting the United States, the domestic "backyard" was "smoking":
Due to the recent exposure of sexual harassment of female reporters of Asahi TV, the Deputy Minister of Finance, Mr. Fukuda, announced his resignation.
This fire even burned to Abe’s cabinet minister and finance minister Taro Aso.
On the 19th, when he went to attend the G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting, he said nothing when asked by reporters at the airport.
On the same day, six opposition parties in Japan unanimously decided to ask Aso to resign, and Abe in the United States had to apologize for Fukuda’s resignation.
This is the second time in just 20 days that Abe has apologized for the scandal in the Ministry of Finance.
Since March, the "Senyou Academy Scandal" that was exposed last year has been fermented again, and Sasakawa Xuanshou, the former financial director of the Ministry of Finance, was forced to resign because he had tampered with more than 300 official documents related to the Senyou incident.
Kyodo News believes that the issue of forest friends has brought a sense of crisis to local organizations of the Liberal Democratic Party, and it has also caused people’s distrust of the Abe regime to rise.
On April 15th, a poll released by Japanese TV showed that Abe’s support rate dropped to 26.7%, the lowest since 2012.
In September 2018, the Liberal Democratic Party will hold a presidential election, and recent polls show that the support rate of Shi Pomao, the former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, has surpassed Abe for the first time!
Most Japanese media believe that Abe’s visit to the United States is more like an "escape trip", and he also hopes to achieve diplomatic results to dilute the successive domestic scandals.
In addition to seeking interaction with the United States, Abe is also promoting diplomacy with China.
On April 15th, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China arrived in Japan.
On April 16th, Wang Yi and Japanese Foreign Minister Tarō Kōno co-chaired the fourth China-Japan high-level economic dialogue in Tokyo, which was restarted after eight years.
On the same day, Shinzo Abe, who is about to visit the United States, met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
2018 marks the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese Treaty of Peace and Friendship, and Japan is seizing the opportunity to release some positive signals. In Forbes magazine’s view, Trump’s trade protection policy is also bringing China and Japan closer.
However, whether Sino-Japanese relations can really improve still depends on Japan’s attitude on historical and practical issues.
Feeling the internal and external challenges faced by Abe, the Japanese "Diplomat" magazine recently published a document with the title: Will this be the end of Abe?
The answer is actually not clear.
Abe is not a man without wind and waves. He has rich ruling experience and solid factional strength within the party, especially good at turning crisis into opportunity. For Abe, this kind of peak gambling is not the first time, and perhaps it is not the last time.
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